Blair in China, China in Parliament, UK and the Stans
A Beijing to Britain briefing
Hello,
Away from the spotlight, a concerted campaign to increase British political and economic ties in Central Asia has been underway for some months. As I’ve highlighted to readers in previous notes, this has seen senior officials such as Foreign Secretary James Cleverly visiting countries such as Kazakhstan - often ignored by the Westminster foreign policy blob. The Stans are the latest winner of the great battle to secure supply chains, an issue burned into the minds of British policymakers by the current cost of energy thanks to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and the very real concerns that China holds a strategic chokehold over many different critical mineral chains.
Political attention around the Government’s engagement with the Stans will likely increase. For example, the Government recently noted in a follow-up response to the Foreign Affairs Committee that “the critical minerals potential of Kazakhstan is still under development and is an important part of the long-term solution to security of supply,” and announced that Minister Ghani, Minister of State at the Department for Business and Trade, will visit Astana for the UK-Kazakhstan Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC) on Trade and Investment in November. Likewise, the Government is preparing to host a visit to London by the Kyrgyz Foreign Minister before the end of the year to initiate the first-ever UK-Kyrgyzstan Political Dialogue, and has talked of plans to send more Ministers into the region.
This will not necessarily be sunshine and rainbows. The bulking up of the UK’s presence in the Indo-Pacific has been accelerated by regional countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. The Stands operate in a different China orbit: they do not feel the same pressures Beijing exerts on its Eastern neighbours. As this RUSI paper notes, “in the first half of 2022, its trade with Kazakhstan was three times higher than in the first half of 2016, while its trade with Uzbekistan between January and July 2022 was 32.5% higher compared to the same period in 2021.” MERICS mapped some of the major infrastructure projects Chinese companies are currently building, including vital trade routes. Russia too plays a significant role in the region. While all eyes are on the Indo-Pacific, it will be fascinating to see how this battle for economic and diplomatic influence plays out.
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— Sam Hogg, Editor
In this week’s Briefing Note, we look at:
Analysing the Labour Party Conference
The UK’s diplomatic push
Where the Tories might go next on China
London Metals Week
Annual results from a China-facing trust
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