UK-France on China, TikTok ban, BGI Group, Integrated Review Refresh
A Beijing to Britain briefing
Hello,
If things go ahead as expected, tomorrow the Government will publish its long-awaited Integrated Review Refresh (IRR). Expect fleeting pundit and political noise around China not being declared a ‘threat’, and a first-time mention for Taiwan. I’ll be keeping an eye on all of this, but I’m particularly keen to see any evidence that the Government has actually “invest[ed] in enhanced China-facing capabilities”, which it promised to do in the original IR. After all, if you don’t have the expertise, systems or know-how to understand China properly, it doesn’t really matter how you end up classifying it. Regardless, a briefing will arrive for paid subscribers with some policy reaction after the report is published tomorrow.
Taking a step back; when it comes to thinking about the recent and current state of UK-China relations, I’m fond of describing it as being one of three loose eras (for clarity of thinking). First came the Golden Era, when successive British Governments hugged China in an effort to incentivise closer economic ties; some would say that there was also a vague hope the Chinese Government would lean towards democracy too.
Next came the ‘Alarm Era’, perhaps roughly from 2018 to halfway through 2022-ish, which saw General Secretary Xi Jinping veer more firmly towards authoritarianism, and President Donald Trump begin a trade war with Beijing among other diplomatic and political episodes. The pandemic played a critical role here, severing ties across politics, business and society, and the Chinese Government’s lack of transparency over Covid-19 further damaged relations. Domestically, British politicians and the public were appalled by the crackdown on freedoms and arrests in Hong Kong, the stories of atrocities emerging from Xinjiang, and the notion that Chinese-state-linked companies like Huawei and Hikvision may be a serious security risk. At least two groups - IPAC and the China Research Group - came into existence in close succession, aimed at communicating these concerns from backbenchers to the Government, and bringing attention to other security or human rights concerns. Articles arrived every week declaring the need to ‘WAKE UP’ to the China threat, although few provided policy ideas as to what needs to be done strategically outside of severing Chinese access to critical security sectors. A deep scepticism towards the intentions of the Chinese Government set in across Parliament (at odds with parts of Whitehall), evidenced by multiple rebellions to bills passing through the Commons and Lords, the declaration of genocide in Xinjiang by Parliament, and every single Conservative leadership candidate trying to pitch their hawk credentials during the race over summer.
I think we are now at the dawn of a third chapter, which I roughly term the “What Now Era.” Having raised the alarm and begun making progress on some of the easier issues, policymakers and activists are beginning to scrutinise and pressure the Government’s work on building national security, firming up domestic resilience, or working with new and old partners around the world. Very few of these present ‘easy’ choices - almost all involve fundamentally difficult trade-offs and compromises. They will cost money and require a different approach to international diplomacy, industrial strategy and communication with the public.
Here are three ideas for this difficult era. First, the Government must articulate its approach to China in a more coherent and public way. What are the challenges, what are the areas for collaboration, and what is the plan? Keeping quiet is not a strategy, and gives the impression that a) we don’t have a coherent approach and b) the UK has little autonomy, instead just alternating between following the lead of Washington or Brussels. Part of this articulation should involve setting out a timetable for critical markers of engagement, like senior ministerial visits and dialogues or relaunching JETCO and the EFD. On the other side of the coin, going dark for six months after saying action is coming on things like Confucius Institutes or Chinese ‘overseas police stations’ is simply not good enough, looks weak, and puts us at odds with international partners. For Parliamentarians, this is the era for disciplined strategic communications and planning. If you come to the view that an issue is a critical national security concern, it shouldn’t have fallen off your radar in the space of three weeks to never again be mentioned in Parliament. Be across the brief and evidence a deeper-than-surface level understanding of the security concerns being raised. Likewise, many politicians can rightly be pleased that due to their efforts, speeches, and campaigns, the Overton Window on China in Westminster has changed. There will be no return to the Golden Era as it was - national security and economic resilience are now firmly on the agenda. But while there are still campaigns to be won, decrying efforts from Downing Street to stabilise the relationship as appeasement is probably not going to move the dial on policy. Finally, for businesses, expect to be pressed by Parliament, Government and Whitehall on your own strategies with regards to supply chains, Taiwan, and having an ESG approach that covers China. What crisis plans do you have in place? How well do you understand the lay of the land in Westminster? The winds have changed over the last decade, and scrutiny will only grow - so it’s critical to stay informed of movements and currents this bilateral.
— Sam Hogg, Editor
In this week’s Briefing Note, we look at:
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement on China
Government Minister on Chinese firms in the defence supply chain
The UK’s recent critical minerals push
Chinese giant BGI Group alleged hacking of a Government-backed organisation
TikTok’s efforts to win hearts and minds in Westminster, and an incoming ban