Winning the China vote

Why presenting a coherent approach to UK-China relations may help PM hopefuls win Conservative grass-root votes

Hello,

The influential Conservative 1922 Committee has set out the timetable for the upcoming election to become leader of the Conservative Party. Whichever candidate wins will, by default, become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Remember: each contender’s initial pitch has to appeal to Conservative MPs in the first instance, then Conservative voters (200,000 of them more or less) in the second. That’s because they will need the support of at least 20 MPs by 6PM today to be nominated, and then the vote of Conservative Party members should they get to the final two. Naturally these are interlinked - MPs are unlikely to back someone they don’t believe is a vote winner - but for strategic clarity it’s useful to distinguish these two groups. Given the current political leaning of the majority of Conservative MPs, contenders have honed their pitches to the more populated right wing of the party. Finally, it’s worth noting: at no point during this process is a contender having to pitch to the general public.

When setting out their pitch a contender wants to focus on clear messaging around a party-critical issue. In this election that’s the economy and tax. Should they receive the 20 backers they need before the deadline - just under an hour from now - they can start to build on their messaging and manifesto, incorporating issues such as climate change and foreign policy in a more coherent and nuanced manner. As it currently publicly stands, only four candidates are set to be nominated: Rishi Sunak, Tom Tugendhat, Liz Truss, and Penny Mordaunt. We will know for sure just after 6PM.

Foreign policy is rarely the singular reason for a voter to back a candidate - but it can be one of the deciding factors that sets them apart from their peers. From a foreign policy perspective, as today’s short note discusses, there are signs Conservative leadership hopefuls may win support by setting out their own unique approach to relations with China.

This is for three reasons:

1. The three most prominent security threats perceived by Britons are, in order, climate change, terrorism, and the rise of China as a world power

2. Russia and China are seen as almost equally threatening. Telling when Russia has invaded a sovereign European country – becoming a super consensus and important issue here in the UK – and China has not

3. There’s a desire for a coherent, thoughtful view on the UK’s relationship with China that is human rights-led, but economically sound. MPs, Conservative voters and businesses will be looking for a candidate to set out what their approach to relations with the Middle Kingdom would look like - would it differ from Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s, or will it be seen as a continuation?

This short note is a thought exercise. For clarity, we separate Chinese citizens from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), but will simply refer to ‘China’ throughout this note.

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The China question

Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of a contender’s campaign manager. Having made the bulk of their domestic pitch on issues such as tax or the culture wars already, it’s now time to synthesise your candidate’s views on foreign policy with those of Conservative MPs and the membership. Condemning Russia’s invasion is an obvious one shared throughout the contenders, but others, like what the UK’s relationship with China should look like, are less black and white.

Unfortunately, little data exists to show how the average Conservative MP views the UK’s relationship with China, let alone how they view China as a world power. Anecdotally, as Beijing to Britain readers know, it’s likely to be less than positive, reflecting the tense political relationship between Parliament and Beijing as a whole. Concern around the Middle Kingdom has certainly increased in the last three years, evidenced by mentions of ‘China’ in Hansard’s records (see below), the creation of at least three China-focused groups, and multiple rebellions on issues such as Huawei or the alleged genocide in Xinjiang.

So, with the base assumption that Conservative MPs have a sceptical view of China, but by and large are not in favour of economic decoupling, how could our candidate pitch a coherent ‘China Strategy’ type approach?

Let us, in our campaign manager’s shoes, accept the premise that those MPs who already have a strong view on China will not be swayed. Instead, we’re now pitching to show floating MPs that our candidate understands the mood of the grassroots Conservative membership on this issue and has an offer that sets them apart.

The membership

Two pieces of research can help us form a view as to what our candidate could be saying about China to win the grassroots support on this issue. The first comes from British Foreign Policy Group’s influential annual report examining UK public opinion on foreign policy and global affairs.

We can draw seven lessons from this report:

1. The three most prominent security threats perceived by Britons are, in order, climate change, terrorism, and the rise of China as a world power

2. 45% of the British public now believe that Russia and China pose the same level of threat to the UK

3. Leave voters (16%) are more likely than Remain voters (12%) to believe that China poses a bigger threat than Russia

4. Conservative-Remain voters (36%) are almost twice as likely as Conservative-Leave voters (19%) to view Russia as the bigger threat

5. The British public are most supportive of challenging China on its human rights record (40%), then cooperating on shared global challenges, such as climate change (33%). A quarter of Britons support Chinese students attending UK universities and higher education and just over a fifth (21%) support research collaboration between the two nations

6. The sharpest disparity is in support for cooperation with China on shared global challenges which is supported by 50% of Liberal Democrat voters and 41% of Labour voters, compared to 30% of Conservative voters

7. Less than a fifth (19%) of Britons support Chinese economic engagement and financial investment in the UK

Let us now combine these observations with a recent poll (below) from Redfield & Wilton Strategies. Note that this poll was run five days ago, on the day Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation.

Source: Redfield & Wilston Strategies

We can draw two takeaways here:

1. More of the British public want a Prime Minister who sees China, rather than Russia, as the UK’s primary threat

2. 2019 Conservative voters feel this is the case more strongly than the average voter

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Concluding thoughts

So with this in mind, what could a candidate’s proposed approach to China relations look like? Here are some starters for ten:

• It could be values-led, influenced by a clear understanding that the British public support economic policies such as keeping Chinese investment out of British infrastructure projects, and with a strong human rights element

• It will need to have realpolitik components. Economic decoupling should not be on any candidate’s agenda, but China’s economic place on the world stage will likely come up during debate, so a coherent answer is necessary

• Candidates could note the positive feelings towards Chinese students and safe research partnerships (they would be wise to reflect on US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s comments) and present a thoughtful view on how they feel the UK and China could work on climate change and biodiversity issues

• Finally, as anti-Asian racism has grown since the pandemic began, each potential Prime Minister should be acutely aware of the impact of their rhetoric

We hope you’ve enjoyed this short note. Please feel free to share, as this briefing is public.